Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 29?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 52¢ · $364 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$364.47
-$9.79
44¢ → 52¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $252.81 | $245.76 | -$7.05 | 46% 574-661 (1235) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $53 | $50 | -$2.63 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $30 | $34.8 | +$4.8 | 61% 20619-13064 (33683) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $30.02 | $23.99 | -$6.03 | 50% 1640-1625 (3265) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.3¢ | $13.25 | $9.92 | +$1.11 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
Invested
$252.81
Value
$245.76
PnL
-$7.05
Record
46%
574-661 (1235)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$53
Value
$50
PnL
-$2.63
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$30
Value
$34.8
PnL
+$4.8
Record
61%
20619-13064 (33683)
Invested
$30.02
Value
$23.99
PnL
-$6.03
Record
50%
1640-1625 (3265)
Invested
$13.25
Value
$9.92
PnL
+$1.11
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.