Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 29?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 61¢ · $116 held · ends Oct 29

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$115.87

Combined PnL

$7.42

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$97.31

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$5.35

Yes1 trader

Total Value$18.56

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$2.07

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 59.8¢	$109.15	$39.13	+$2.4	53% 6290-5520 (11810)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 56.8¢	$33.35	$36.38	+$3.03	61% 20632-13069 (33701)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$16.49	$18.56	+$2.07	50% 1642-1626 (3268)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 58¢	$15.15	$15	-$0.15	28% 280-709 (989)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 57¢	$6.73	$6.79	+$0.06	57% 13017-9926 (22943)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$109.15

Value

$39.13

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

6290-5520 (11810)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$33.35

Value

$36.38

PnL

+$3.03

Record

61%

20632-13069 (33701)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.49

Value

$18.56

PnL

+$2.07

Record

50%

1642-1626 (3268)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.79

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

13017-9926 (22943)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.