Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 28?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 92¢ · $773 held · ends Oct 28

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$773.38

Combined PnL

$97.59

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 92¢

+75% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$555.16

Total Shares773

Combined PnL+$118.3

No2 traders

Total Value$130.41

Total Shares395

Combined PnL-$20.71

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 52.2¢	$363.81	$547.47	+$122.8	46% 567-659 (1226)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 41.3¢	$156.92	$125.26	-$22.17	55% 239-197 (436)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 60.1¢	$88.94	$87.8	-$0.89	29% 279-667 (946)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.1¢	$52.8	$58.82	+$6.02
└ No leg	Noavg 40.9¢	$35.92	$28.98	-$6.91
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$45	$7.69	-$4.5	53% 6279-5507 (11786)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 23.6¢	$3.69	$5.15	+$1.46	50% 1636-1625 (3261)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$363.81

Value

$547.47

PnL

+$122.8

Record

46%

567-659 (1226)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$156.92

Value

$125.26

PnL

-$22.17

Record

55%

239-197 (436)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.94

Value

$87.8

PnL

-$0.89

Record

29%

279-667 (946)

Both legs:

Yes$52.860.1¢+$6.02

No$35.9240.9¢-$6.91

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$45

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$4.5

Record

53%

6279-5507 (11786)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$1.46

Record

50%

1636-1625 (3261)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.