Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on November 6?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 0.4¢ · $121 held · ends Nov 6

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$120.56

Combined PnL

$13.46

Smart Money Entry

36.7¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$46.09

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$5.88

No9 traders

Total Value$73.93

Total Shares1,839

Combined PnL+$7.58

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 79.4¢	$53.34	$46.09	+$5.88	58% 21302-15462 (36764)
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 51.3¢	$206.66	$39.89	-$166.76	32% 2226-4728 (6954)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 55¢	$87.31	$15.17	-$72.14	40% 845-1252 (2097)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$46.17	$9.07	-$37.1	56% 724-559 (1283)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$6.91	$2.47	-$4.45	53% 4100-3666 (7766)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$22.43	$2.44	-$19.99	53% 23766-20936 (44702)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 2.2¢	$8.35	$1.91	-$6.44	19% 2903-12326 (15229)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$63.06	$1.57	-$44.33	13% 533-3528 (4061)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$71.73	$1.01	+$368.94	53% 4530-4033 (8563)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 27.6¢	$60.96	$0.4	-$10.14	53% 8597-7672 (16269)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.34

Value

$46.09

PnL

+$5.88

Record

58%

21302-15462 (36764)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$206.66

Value

$39.89

PnL

-$166.76

Record

32%

2226-4728 (6954)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$87.31

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$72.14

Record

40%

845-1252 (2097)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$46.17

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$37.1

Record

56%

724-559 (1283)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$6.91

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$4.45

Record

53%

4100-3666 (7766)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$22.43

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$19.99

Record

53%

23766-20936 (44702)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$8.35

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$6.44

Record

19%

2903-12326 (15229)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$63.06

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$44.33

Record

13%

533-3528 (4061)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$71.73

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$368.94

Record

53%

4530-4033 (8563)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$60.96

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$10.14

Record

53%

8597-7672 (16269)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.