Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on November 4?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 45¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$160.62
$47.34
35.4¢ → 44.5¢
+26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $54.12 | $122.49 | +$48.01 | 44% 754-963 (1717) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $30.25 | $29.4 | -$0.85 | 58% 2445-1789 (4234) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $3.66 | $4.14 | +$0.48 | 56% 606-485 (1091) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $8.18 | $2.5 | -$0.21 | 79% 11953-3142 (15095) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.1 | -$0.1 | 53% 9602-8425 (18027) |
Invested
$54.12
Value
$122.49
PnL
+$48.01
Record
44%
754-963 (1717)
Invested
$30.25
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$0.85
Record
58%
2445-1789 (4234)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$0.48
Record
56%
606-485 (1091)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.18
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.21
Record
79%
11953-3142 (15095)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
9602-8425 (18027)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.