Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on November 16?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 54¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 16

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$157.55

Combined PnL

$34.93

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$77.03

Total Shares165

Combined PnL-$9.51

No8 traders

Total Value$80.52

Total Shares141

Combined PnL+$44.45

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 53.3¢	$109.55	$77.03	-$9.51	43% 855-1149 (2004)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$17.8	$21.2	+$3.4	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 45¢	$16.15	$16.55	+$0.4	70% 985-425 (1410)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 44¢	$13.2	$15.9	+$2.7	32% 1145-2481 (3626)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 38¢	$75.05	$10.64	+$37.45	14% 110-655 (765)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$5.92	$5.41	-$0.52	58% 919-668 (1587)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 53¢	$4.3	$4.3	+$0	50% 919-927 (1846)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 48¢	$3.5	$3.87	+$0.36	29% 350-853 (1203)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2	$2.65	+$0.65	65% 4393-2417 (6810)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.55

Value

$77.03

PnL

-$9.51

Record

43%

855-1149 (2004)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$3.4

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.15

Value

$16.55

PnL

+$0.4

Record

70%

985-425 (1410)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$2.7

Record

32%

1145-2481 (3626)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$75.05

Value

$10.64

PnL

+$37.45

Record

14%

110-655 (765)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$0.52

Record

58%

919-668 (1587)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

919-927 (1846)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0.36

Record

29%

350-853 (1203)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.65

Record

65%

4393-2417 (6810)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.