Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on November 16?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 83¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 16

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$143.57

Combined PnL

-$7.28

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$97.6

Total Shares118

Combined PnL+$1.45

Yes3 traders

Total Value$45.97

Total Shares321

Combined PnL-$8.73

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$33.24	$32.98	-$0.26	28% 3288-8374 (11662)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 83¢	$24.9	$24.74	-$0.16	42% 1683-2319 (4002)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$23.43	$23.43	+$0	43% 55-73 (128)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$53.4	$18.94	-$9.11	54% 1237-1050 (2287)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 83¢	$17.24	$17.17	-$0.07	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75¢	$16.49	$9.84	+$2.28	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$8.31	$8.25	-$0.06	34% 347-663 (1010)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$4.9	$4.63	-$0.27	71% 939-382 (1321)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$23.2	$3.6	+$0.38	14% 101-606 (707)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$33.24

Value

$32.98

PnL

-$0.26

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$24.9

Value

$24.74

PnL

-$0.16

Record

42%

1683-2319 (4002)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.43

Value

$23.43

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

55-73 (128)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.4

Value

$18.94

PnL

-$9.11

Record

54%

1237-1050 (2287)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$17.24

Value

$17.17

PnL

-$0.07

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.49

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$2.28

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$8.31

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$0.06

Record

34%

347-663 (1010)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$0.27

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.2

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.38

Record

14%

101-606 (707)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.3%

82.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.