Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$82.15

Combined PnL

-$0.58

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$81.86

Total Shares82

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.29

Total Shares73

Combined PnL-$0.6

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.94	+$0.03	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.96	-$0.02	99% 1449-21 (1470)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$16.28	$16.3	+$0.02	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$6.11	$6.11	+$0	49% 849-871 (1720)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.11	$5.1	-$0.01	50% 784-774 (1558)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.45	$4.45	-$0	60% 796-535 (1331)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.06	$0.17	+$0.12	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.08	$0.08	+$0	58% 771-565 (1336)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.73	$0.02	-$0.71	46% 40-47 (87)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.01	25% 1331-4013 (5344)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.03

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

99%

1449-21 (1470)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.11

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

771-565 (1336)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.71

Record

46%

40-47 (87)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

25%

1331-4013 (5344)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.