Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $151 held · ends Nov 15

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$150.54

Combined PnL

$9.28

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 95.2¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$148.03

Total Shares137

Combined PnL+$8.89

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.5

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$0.39

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$30.77	$30.13	-$0.64	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$29.19	$29.46	+$0.27	32% 76-160 (236)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$15.74	$26.31	+$10.57	41% 726-1042 (1768)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$33.12	$23.53	-$0.03	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$31.5	$12.14	-$1.34	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.9	$9.97	+$0.07	49% 849-871 (1720)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.34	$9.31	-$0.03	46% 1163-1351 (2514)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$7.15	$7.18	+$0.02	50% 784-774 (1558)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.33	$1.32	+$0.98	40% 254-374 (628)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$1.78	$1.19	-$0.59	25% 1331-4013 (5344)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.77

Value

$30.13

PnL

-$0.64

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

123987456<$100

Invested

$29.19

Value

$29.46

PnL

+$0.27

Record

32%

76-160 (236)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$15.74

Value

$26.31

PnL

+$10.57

Record

41%

726-1042 (1768)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.12

Value

$23.53

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$12.14

PnL

-$1.34

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

$9.31

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

1163-1351 (2514)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.98

Record

40%

254-374 (628)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.59

Record

25%

1331-4013 (5344)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.