Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on November 15?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 43¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 15

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$132.36

Combined PnL

$46.11

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$81.6

Total Shares212

Combined PnL+$42.02

No5 traders

Total Value$50.76

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$4.09

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.6¢	$45.87	$63.08	+$17.21	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$15.68	$18.02	+$2.34	53% 7137-6246 (13383)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 47¢	$14.1	$17.7	+$3.6	29% 1113-2674 (3787)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$21.94	$10.4	-$1.54	41% 711-1031 (1742)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$6.14	$6.09	-$0.05	57% 751-556 (1307)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$7.75	$5.9	-$1.85	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$4.3	$4.53	+$0.23	31% 204-459 (663)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.99	$3.04	+$0.05	46% 1143-1343 (2486)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.18	+$0.02	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$45.31	$1.41	+$26.1	35% 3810-6938 (10748)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.87

Value

$63.08

PnL

+$17.21

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.68

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$2.34

Record

53%

7137-6246 (13383)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$14.1

Value

$17.7

PnL

+$3.6

Record

29%

1113-2674 (3787)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.94

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$1.54

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

$6.09

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

751-556 (1307)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.75

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$1.85

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.23

Record

31%

204-459 (663)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.99

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

1143-1343 (2486)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.31

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$26.1

Record

35%

3810-6938 (10748)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.