Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on November 15?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 60¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 15

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$127.14

Combined PnL

$29.28

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$116.14

Total Shares176

Combined PnL+$27.76

Yes5 traders

Total Value$10.98

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$1.52

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$40.4	$48.8	+$8.4	54% 2311-1998 (4309)
24 241532532432	Noavg 43¢	$121.73	$27.21	+$15.45	41% 716-1035 (1751)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$18.45	$19.02	+$0.57	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$14.03	$10.87	+$3.58	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 66¢	$4.04	$3.61	-$0.43	51% 867-820 (1687)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.5¢	$3.23	$3.54	+$0.31	46% 1157-1347 (2504)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.37	$2.83	+$0.46	58% 765-561 (1326)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$2.16	$2.71	+$0.55	50% 780-769 (1549)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 66¢	$2.95	$2.64	-$0.31	61% 790-508 (1298)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.8	$2.07	+$0.27	49% 816-837 (1653)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.5	$1.78	+$0.28	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.17	+$0.04	26% 565-1641 (2206)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$5.06	$0.88	+$0.11	32% 224-485 (709)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$40.4

Value

$48.8

PnL

+$8.4

Record

54%

2311-1998 (4309)

241532532432

Invested

$121.73

Value

$27.21

PnL

+$15.45

Record

41%

716-1035 (1751)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.45

Value

$19.02

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.03

Value

$10.87

PnL

+$3.58

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$3.61

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

867-820 (1687)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$0.31

Record

46%

1157-1347 (2504)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

765-561 (1326)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

780-769 (1549)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$0.31

Record

61%

790-508 (1298)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

816-837 (1653)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.28

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.04

Record

26%

565-1641 (2206)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.06

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.11

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.