Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $72 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$72.04

Combined PnL

-$0.99

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$71.65

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$0.78

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares391

Combined PnL-$0.22

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97¢	$29.63	$29.24	-$0.4	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$29.13	$28.71	-$0.42	42% 1658-2297 (3955)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.32	$5.36	+$0.04	32% 76-160 (236)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.79	+$0.04	50% 784-774 (1558)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$12.84	$3.56	-$0.04	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$95.49	$0.19	+$3.7	41% 726-1042 (1768)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$3.55	$0.17	-$3.38	14% 93-569 (662)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$0.54	$0.01	-$0.53	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.01	25% 1331-4013 (5344)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.63

Value

$29.24

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.13

Value

$28.71

PnL

-$0.42

Record

42%

1658-2297 (3955)

123987456<$100

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.04

Record

32%

76-160 (236)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.84

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.49

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$3.7

Record

41%

726-1042 (1768)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$3.38

Record

14%

93-569 (662)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.53

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

25%

1331-4013 (5344)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.