Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on November 15?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $50 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
11
Yes 82%
$50.3
-$33.06
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 38% 306-500 (806) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.99 | +$0.01 | 98% 1504-23 (1527) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $33.16 | $0.15 | -$14.84 | 28% 3261-8293 (11554) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.43 | $0.05 | -$4.38 | 24% 752-2353 (3105) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.96 | $0.03 | -$2.93 | 43% 5158-6925 (12083) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $61.79 | $0.03 | -$7.61 | 35% 3858-7089 (10947) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.09 | $0.02 | -$2.07 | 17% 92-444 (536) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0 | 25% 1346-4044 (5390) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.03 | $0.01 | -$0.02 | 14% 97-580 (677) |
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.73 | $0.01 | -$0.72 | 45% 40-48 (88) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.53 | $0.01 | -$0.53 | 41% 2656-3796 (6452) |
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
38%
306-500 (806)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
98%
1504-23 (1527)
Invested
$33.16
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$14.84
Record
28%
3261-8293 (11554)
Invested
$4.43
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.38
Record
24%
752-2353 (3105)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.96
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.93
Record
43%
5158-6925 (12083)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$61.79
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$7.61
Record
35%
3858-7089 (10947)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.07
Record
17%
92-444 (536)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
1346-4044 (5390)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.02
Record
14%
97-580 (677)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.72
Record
45%
40-48 (88)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.53
Record
41%
2656-3796 (6452)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.