Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on November 15?
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 11%
$263.23
-$16.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $262.91 | $263.04 | +$0.13 | 99% 1449-21 (1470) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.74 | $0.09 | -$7.66 | 35% 3830-6996 (10826) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.03 | -$2.7 | 31% 1085-2425 (3510) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.18 | $0.02 | -$2.16 | 24% 108-347 (455) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.02 | -$1.8 | 28% 3241-8219 (11460) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $0.54 | $0.01 | -$0.53 | 42% 2644-3715 (6359) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.01 | -$0.01 | 25% 1331-4013 (5344) |
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.73 | $0.01 | -$0.72 | 46% 40-47 (87) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.66 | $0 | -$0.65 | 37% 1569-2700 (4269) |
Invested
$262.91
Value
$263.04
PnL
+$0.13
Record
99%
1449-21 (1470)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$7.74
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$7.66
Record
35%
3830-6996 (10826)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.7
Record
31%
1085-2425 (3510)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.16
Record
24%
108-347 (455)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.8
Record
28%
3241-8219 (11460)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.53
Record
42%
2644-3715 (6359)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
25%
1331-4013 (5344)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.72
Record
46%
40-47 (87)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.65
Record
37%
1569-2700 (4269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.