Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on November 15?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$62.33
-$16.19
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $62.11 | $62.14 | +$0.03 | 99% 1449-21 (1470) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.74 | $0.09 | -$7.66 | 35% 3830-6996 (10826) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.03 | -$2.7 | 31% 1085-2425 (3510) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.18 | $0.02 | -$2.16 | 24% 108-347 (455) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.02 | -$1.8 | 28% 3241-8219 (11460) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.01 | -$0.01 | 25% 1331-4013 (5344) |
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.73 | $0.01 | -$0.72 | 46% 40-47 (87) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.66 | $0.01 | -$0.65 | 37% 1569-2700 (4269) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.53 | $0.01 | -$0.53 | 42% 2644-3715 (6359) |
Invested
$62.11
Value
$62.14
PnL
+$0.03
Record
99%
1449-21 (1470)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$7.74
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$7.66
Record
35%
3830-6996 (10826)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.7
Record
31%
1085-2425 (3510)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.16
Record
24%
108-347 (455)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.8
Record
28%
3241-8219 (11460)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
25%
1331-4013 (5344)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.72
Record
46%
40-47 (87)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.65
Record
37%
1569-2700 (4269)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.53
Record
42%
2644-3715 (6359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.