Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on November 14?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $281 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$281.36

Combined PnL

-$84.29

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 98.7¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$222.11

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$5.71

Yes6 traders

Total Value$59.21

Total Shares1,648

Combined PnL-$90

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 88.7¢	$128.95	$74.89	+$6.76	31% 146-327 (473)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$59.4	$59.22	-$0.18	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$45.46	$45.36	-$0.1	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$89.51	$35.4	-$54.11	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$12.93	$12.94	+$0.01	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.21	$11.57	-$17.64	55% 1208-979 (2187)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$28.28	$11.35	-$16.93	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$9.3	$8.76	-$0.54	39% 216-342 (558)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.91	$5.89	-$0.02	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.21	$5.08	-$0.13	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$5.09	$5.02	-$0.07	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.96	$4.94	-$0.02	51% 742-710 (1452)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$23.96	$0.64	-$1.04	72% 823-323 (1146)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.11	$0.18	-$0.16	27% 667-1774 (2441)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.19	$0.08	-$0.11	49% 731-768 (1499)

Haradwaith

Invested

$128.95

Value

$74.89

PnL

+$6.76

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$59.4

Value

$59.22

PnL

-$0.18

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.46

Value

$45.36

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.51

Value

$35.4

PnL

-$54.11

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$12.93

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.21

Value

$11.57

PnL

-$17.64

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.28

Value

$11.35

PnL

-$16.93

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$8.76

PnL

-$0.54

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$0.13

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.96

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$1.04

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.11

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.16

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.