Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on November 14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $971 held · ends Nov 14

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$971.11

Combined PnL

$651.04

Smart Money Entry

31.7¢ → 98.4¢

+210% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$967.08

Total Shares985

Combined PnL+$653.95

No5 traders

Total Value$4.02

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$2.9

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 16.1¢	$75.93	$462.87	+$386.94	55% 1208-979 (2187)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 39.6¢	$145.24	$360.49	+$215.25	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 44.2¢	$40.17	$89.16	+$48.98	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 88.7¢	$27.4	$29.57	+$2.17	39% 216-342 (558)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$24.39	$25	+$0.61	50% 697-689 (1386)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 20.3¢	$14.77	$3.71	-$4.18	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$0.05	$0.1	+$0.04	58% 699-503 (1202)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$3.91	$0.08	+$1.18	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$0.05	$0.08	+$0.04	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 0.8¢	$0.02	$0.05	+$0.02	48% 757-814 (1571)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$75.93

Value

$462.87

PnL

+$386.94

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$145.24

Value

$360.49

PnL

+$215.25

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.17

Value

$89.16

PnL

+$48.98

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.4

Value

$29.57

PnL

+$2.17

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.39

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$14.77

Value

$3.71

PnL

-$4.18

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$3.91

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$1.18

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.