Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on November 14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $290 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$289.66

Combined PnL

$284.29

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 100¢

+64% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$284.08

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$297.2

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.58

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$12.91

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 59.3¢	$115.02	$193.77	+$78.75	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$53.88	$72.93	+$29.05	40% 620-939 (1559)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72¢	$10.27	$14.24	+$3.97	72% 823-323 (1146)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$13.55	$5.47	-$5.92	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 60.7¢	$332.71	$3.14	+$185.43	55% 1208-979 (2187)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.8¢	$3.45	$0.05	-$3.4	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.63	$0.04	-$1.6	27% 667-1774 (2441)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.07	$0.01	-$0.06	25% 1304-3920 (5224)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$1.95	$0.01	-$1.94	31% 146-327 (473)

hello.67

Invested

$115.02

Value

$193.77

PnL

+$78.75

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$53.88

Value

$72.93

PnL

+$29.05

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.27

Value

$14.24

PnL

+$3.97

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.55

Value

$5.47

PnL

-$5.92

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$332.71

Value

$3.14

PnL

+$185.43

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$3.4

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.63

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.6

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.06

Record

25%

1304-3920 (5224)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.94

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.