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NoNoYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesYes
LucerysCTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on November 14?
Resolved No. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 60%
Total Value
$82.88
Combined PnL
$7.56
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 7 top traders (57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$82.88
Total Shares83
Combined PnL+$25.14
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares155
Combined PnL-$17.59
No — 43%Yes — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $94.41 | $72.11 | +$5.67 | 40% 657-989 (1646) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $28.97 | $10.77 | -$0.36 | 52% 1708-1554 (3262) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 27% 691-1911 (2602) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.45 | — | -$5.45 | 43% 5073-6616 (11689) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | — | -$0 | 25% 1313-3954 (5267) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $73.02 | — | -$4.13 | 36% 3765-6817 (10582) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $272.25 | — | +$19.83 | 55% 1214-1001 (2215) |
24
241532532432<$100Invested
$94.41
Value
$72.11
PnL
+$5.67
Record
40%
657-989 (1646)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
$28.97
Value
$10.77
PnL
-$0.36
Record
52%
1708-1554 (3262)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
27%
691-1911 (2602)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$5.45
Value
—
PnL
-$5.45
Record
43%
5073-6616 (11689)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
—
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
1313-3954 (5267)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$73.02
Value
—
PnL
-$4.13
Record
36%
3765-6817 (10582)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98Invested
$272.25
Value
—
PnL
+$19.83
Record
55%
1214-1001 (2215)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x59cfdb24...619a27
Slug
highest-temperature-in-wellington-on-november-14-2026-18c