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NoYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesYes
LucerysCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on November 14?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 80%
Total Value
$20
Combined PnL
-$49.41
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$20
Total Shares20
Combined PnL+$0.02
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares476
Combined PnL-$49.43
No — 17%Yes — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $20 | +$0.02 | 99% 1293-18 (1311) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $29.21 | — | -$29.21 | 55% 1214-1001 (2215) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 27% 691-1911 (2602) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.45 | — | -$5.45 | 43% 5073-6616 (11689) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.01 | — | -$0 | 25% 1313-3954 (5267) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $75.21 | — | -$6.76 | 36% 3765-6817 (10582) |
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.02
Record
99%
1293-18 (1311)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
$29.21
Value
—
PnL
-$29.21
Record
55%
1214-1001 (2215)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
27%
691-1911 (2602)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$5.45
Value
—
PnL
-$5.45
Record
43%
5073-6616 (11689)
AH
aHjCzCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
—
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
1313-3954 (5267)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$75.21
Value
—
PnL
-$6.76
Record
36%
3765-6817 (10582)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa2d52ce7...48bcfd
Slug
highest-temperature-in-wellington-on-november-14-2026-16c