Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on November 13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $212 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$212.17

Combined PnL

-$17.27

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$211.75

Total Shares212

Combined PnL-$0.21

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.42

Total Shares211

Combined PnL-$17.05

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$159.84	$159.68	-$0.16	99% 862-9 (871)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.71	$30.69	-$0.03	61% 577-374 (951)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.13	$15.12	-$0.02	49% 581-612 (1193)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.27	$6.26	-$0.01	48% 644-696 (1340)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.91	$0.2	-$8.72	58% 1174-847 (2021)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.34	$0.14	-$6.2	60% 2190-1463 (3653)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.18	$0.05	-$2.13	36% 72-129 (201)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.04	+$0	53% 1163-1023 (2186)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.84

Value

$159.68

PnL

-$0.16

Record

99%

862-9 (871)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$30.71

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$0.03

Record

61%

577-374 (951)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$15.13

Value

$15.12

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

581-612 (1193)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

$6.26

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

644-696 (1340)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.91

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$8.72

Record

58%

1174-847 (2021)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.34

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$6.2

Record

60%

2190-1463 (3653)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.13

Record

36%

72-129 (201)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.