Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on November 13?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 13

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$212.51

Combined PnL

-$15.33

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 96.4¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$211.11

Total Shares214

Combined PnL-$0.64

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.38

Total Shares192

Combined PnL-$14.69

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$38.67	$38.28	-$0.4	49% 581-612 (1193)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$33.61	$33.98	+$0.37	43% 936-1230 (2166)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$30.4	$30.19	-$0.2	48% 644-696 (1340)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$31.11	$26.31	+$0.05	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$22.44	$22.21	-$0.23	99% 862-9 (871)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$13.78	$13.79	+$0.01	59% 585-415 (1000)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$13.37	$13.3	-$0.06	59% 564-393 (957)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.34	$12.14	-$0.21	46% 627-737 (1364)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98¢	$11.19	$11.27	+$0.08	47% 613-688 (1301)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$9.69	$9.64	-$0.05	37% 482-817 (1299)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$0.59	$0.51	-$0.08	44% 139-175 (314)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.23	$0.37	+$0.14	61% 577-374 (951)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.91	$0.29	-$8.62	58% 1174-847 (2021)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.34	$0.21	-$6.13	60% 2190-1463 (3653)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$38.67

Value

$38.28

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

581-612 (1193)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$33.61

Value

$33.98

PnL

+$0.37

Record

43%

936-1230 (2166)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$30.4

Value

$30.19

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

644-696 (1340)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.11

Value

$26.31

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$22.44

Value

$22.21

PnL

-$0.23

Record

99%

862-9 (871)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.78

Value

$13.79

PnL

+$0.01

Record

59%

585-415 (1000)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$13.37

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$0.06

Record

59%

564-393 (957)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$12.34

Value

$12.14

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

627-737 (1364)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$11.19

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

613-688 (1301)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.64

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

482-817 (1299)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.08

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.37

PnL

+$0.14

Record

61%

577-374 (951)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.91

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$8.62

Record

58%

1174-847 (2021)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.34

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$6.13

Record

60%

2190-1463 (3653)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.