Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on November 13?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 81¢ · $304 held · ends Nov 13

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$303.51

Combined PnL

$11.85

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 81¢

-10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$235.64

Total Shares286

Combined PnL-$26.98

Yes4 traders

Total Value$67.84

Total Shares696

Combined PnL+$38.82

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock	Noavg 89.7¢	$130.26	$62.28	-$13.65	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$52.74	$50.14	-$2.6	61% 577-374 (951)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$20.36	$36.18	+$20.29	60% 2190-1463 (3653)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$33.26	$30.64	-$2.62	59% 564-393 (957)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98¢	$28.84	$26.7	-$2.13	48% 644-696 (1340)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$22.87	$22.88	+$0.01	49% 604-638 (1242)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$23.43	$18.46	-$4.97	49% 581-612 (1193)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$158.79	$18.15	+$17.47	37% 482-817 (1299)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$9.73	$9.28	-$0.45	29% 3024-7243 (10267)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.91	$9.22	+$0.3	58% 1174-847 (2021)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$9.82	$9.21	-$0.61	46% 627-737 (1364)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.66	$5.01	+$0.35	43% 936-1230 (2166)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.2¢	$3.53	$4.3	+$0.76	44% 139-175 (314)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$1.34	$1.04	-$0.3	47% 613-688 (1301)

ghorrock

Invested

$130.26

Value

$62.28

PnL

-$13.65

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$52.74

Value

$50.14

PnL

-$2.6

Record

61%

577-374 (951)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.36

Value

$36.18

PnL

+$20.29

Record

60%

2190-1463 (3653)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$33.26

Value

$30.64

PnL

-$2.62

Record

59%

564-393 (957)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$28.84

Value

$26.7

PnL

-$2.13

Record

48%

644-696 (1340)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$22.87

Value

$22.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

604-638 (1242)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$23.43

Value

$18.46

PnL

-$4.97

Record

49%

581-612 (1193)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$158.79

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$17.47

Record

37%

482-817 (1299)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.73

Value

$9.28

PnL

-$0.45

Record

29%

3024-7243 (10267)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.91

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

1174-847 (2021)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.82

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$0.61

Record

46%

627-737 (1364)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.35

Record

43%

936-1230 (2166)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.53

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.76

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

613-688 (1301)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.