Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on November 13?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 43¢ · $243 held · ends Nov 13

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$242.81

Combined PnL

$49.18

Smart Money Entry

26.4¢ → 42.5¢

+61% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$181.45

Total Shares449

Combined PnL+$57.91

No7 traders

Total Value$61.36

Total Shares111

Combined PnL-$8.72

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 27.5¢	$110.58	$159.01	+$48.42	59% 1163-798 (1961)
LE LesterDiamond<$100	Noavg 66¢	$26.4	$21.6	-$4.8	42% 32-45 (77)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 67¢	$17.15	$13.82	-$3.33	47% 524-596 (1120)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.8	$12.15	+$9.35	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$10.16	$10.29	+$0.13	53% 925-815 (1740)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$7.51	$7.06	-$0.45	42% 838-1166 (2004)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$7.42	$6.97	-$0.44	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 57¢	$4.09	$4.13	+$0.04	47% 544-625 (1169)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 57¢	$4.08	$4.11	+$0.04	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 54¢	$3.45	$3.67	+$0.22	45% 521-645 (1166)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.58

Value

$159.01

PnL

+$48.42

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

LesterDiamond<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$4.8

Record

42%

32-45 (77)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$17.15

Value

$13.82

PnL

-$3.33

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$12.15

PnL

+$9.35

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.29

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.51

Value

$7.06

PnL

-$0.45

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.42

Value

$6.97

PnL

-$0.44

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.04

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$0.04

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.22

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.