Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on November 13?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 42¢ · $71 held · ends Nov 13

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$70.68

Combined PnL

$36.39

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$68.33

Total Shares129

Combined PnL+$36.74

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.35

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.35

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$89.18	$33.57	+$33.53	61% 1153-751 (1904)
55 0x558f...1a56CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$20.8	$21.2	+$0.4	70% 31-13 (44)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$4.33	$5.47	+$1.14	67% 435-211 (646)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.16	$2.73	+$0.57	51% 474-453 (927)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.14	$2.7	+$0.56	43% 802-1042 (1844)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.11	$2.66	+$0.55	48% 508-561 (1069)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.35	-$0.35	55% 729-596 (1325)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$89.18

Value

$33.57

PnL

+$33.53

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

0x558f...1a56CTR<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$1.14

Record

67%

435-211 (646)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.57

Record

51%

474-453 (927)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.56

Record

43%

802-1042 (1844)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

508-561 (1069)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.