Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 94¢ · $129 held · ends Nov 13

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$129.18

Combined PnL

$4.92

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 94¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$122.02

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$5.05

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.16

Total Shares119

Combined PnL-$0.13

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LesterDiamond<$100	Noavg 83¢	$33.19	$37.6	+$4.41	42% 32-45 (77)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95¢	$32.09	$31.75	-$0.34	45% 521-645 (1166)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 93¢	$23.8	$24.05	+$0.26	48% 510-557 (1067)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 92¢	$23	$23.5	+$0.5	10% 81-735 (816)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$8.79	$6.78	-$2.01	35% 414-754 (1168)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.9	$5.11	+$0.22	76% 675-216 (891)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$52.4	$0.32	+$1.88	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.06	$0.06	-$0	53% 925-815 (1740)

LesterDiamond<$100

Invested

$33.19

Value

$37.6

PnL

+$4.41

Record

42%

32-45 (77)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$32.09

Value

$31.75

PnL

-$0.34

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$23.8

Value

$24.05

PnL

+$0.26

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

10%

81-735 (816)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.79

Value

$6.78

PnL

-$2.01

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.22

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.4

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$1.88

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.