Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $327 held · ends Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$326.98

Combined PnL

-$4.17

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 97¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$325.63

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$6.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.35

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$10.36

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.3¢	$208.97	$215.37	+$6.4	37% 467-800 (1267)
LE LesterDiamond<$100	Noavg 96¢	$38.44	$39.24	+$0.8	42% 33-45 (78)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$25.44	$25.08	-$0.36	58% 557-402 (959)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$25.25	$24.84	-$0.4	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$15.04	$14.85	-$0.19	43% 910-1218 (2128)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$6.31	$6.25	-$0.06	48% 560-595 (1155)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.91	$1.03	-$7.88	58% 1171-835 (2006)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.8	$0.32	-$2.47	61% 2175-1410 (3585)

241532532432

Invested

$208.97

Value

$215.37

PnL

+$6.4

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

LesterDiamond<$100

Invested

$38.44

Value

$39.24

PnL

+$0.8

Record

42%

33-45 (78)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$25.44

Value

$25.08

PnL

-$0.36

Record

58%

557-402 (959)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$24.84

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.04

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$0.19

Record

43%

910-1218 (2128)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

560-595 (1155)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.91

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$7.88

Record

58%

1171-835 (2006)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$2.47

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.