Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $230 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$229.9
$0.42
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $73.93 | $74.08 | +$0.14 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.81 | $59.93 | +$0.12 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $45.86 | $45.95 | +$0.09 | 81% 42-10 (52) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.9 | $29.96 | +$0.06 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.98 | +$0 | 99% 236-2 (238) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$73.93
Value
$74.08
PnL
+$0.14
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.81
Value
$59.93
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Invested
$45.86
Value
$45.95
PnL
+$0.09
Record
81%
42-10 (52)
Invested
$29.9
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.06
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
236-2 (238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.