Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $167 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$167.12
$2.2
98¢ → 97.2¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $72.61 | $72.94 | +$0.33 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $45.25 | $45.25 | +$0 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $24.43 | $24.47 | +$0.04 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $13.5 | $13.65 | +$0.15 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $9.12 | $10.8 | +$1.68 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$72.61
Value
$72.94
PnL
+$0.33
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$45.25
Value
$45.25
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$24.43
Value
$24.47
PnL
+$0.04
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$13.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$1.68
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.