Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on November 12?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 46¢ · $350 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$350.45
$23.79
40.3¢ → 46¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 39.7¢ | $168.58 | $193.41 | +$24.83 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 56.3¢ | $41.72 | $41.52 | -$0.2 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $33 | $33.6 | +$0.6 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $26.22 | $25.76 | -$0.46 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.5¢ | $24.41 | $24.93 | +$0.52 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $16.8 | $16.8 | -$0 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.3¢ | $20.46 | $14.43 | -$1.5 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
Invested
$168.58
Value
$193.41
PnL
+$24.83
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$41.72
Value
$41.52
PnL
-$0.2
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
balthazar<$100Invested
$33
Value
$33.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$26.22
Value
$25.76
PnL
-$0.46
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$24.41
Value
$24.93
PnL
+$0.52
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$16.8
PnL
-$0
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$20.46
Value
$14.43
PnL
-$1.5
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.