Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 42¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$108.38
-$18.7
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $33.63 | $33.63 | +$0 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.8¢ | $39.15 | $30.4 | -$8.75 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $29.14 | $22.34 | -$6.8 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $11.72 | +$0.32 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.8¢ | $13.76 | $10.3 | -$3.46 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
Invested
$33.63
Value
$33.63
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$39.15
Value
$30.4
PnL
-$8.75
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$29.14
Value
$22.34
PnL
-$6.8
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$11.72
PnL
+$0.32
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$10.3
PnL
-$3.46
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.