Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $143 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$142.73
$0.67
94¢ → 94.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $68.61 | $70.07 | +$1.46 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $44.16 | $43.47 | -$0.69 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $23.68 | $23.51 | -$0.17 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.6 | $4.67 | +$0.07 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$68.61
Value
$70.07
PnL
+$1.46
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$44.16
Value
$43.47
PnL
-$0.69
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$23.68
Value
$23.51
PnL
-$0.17
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
balthazar<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.67
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$1
Value
$1
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.