Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $206 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$205.75
-$1.36
99.3¢ → 98.7¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $73.45 | $73.11 | -$0.33 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $53.9 | $53.43 | -$0.47 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $48.06 | $47.67 | -$0.39 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $24.71 | $24.53 | -$0.17 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $6.99 | $7 | +$0.01 | 47% 356-402 (758) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$73.45
Value
$73.11
PnL
-$0.33
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$53.9
Value
$53.43
PnL
-$0.47
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
balthazar<$100Invested
$48.06
Value
$47.67
PnL
-$0.39
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$24.71
Value
$24.53
PnL
-$0.17
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.01
Record
47%
356-402 (758)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.