Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$174.36
-$0.66
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $74.03 | $73.78 | -$0.25 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $45.95 | $45.77 | -$0.18 | 81% 42-10 (52) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.96 | $29.84 | -$0.12 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.9 | -$0.08 | 99% 236-2 (238) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.09 | $5.07 | -$0.02 | 42% 360-502 (862) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$74.03
Value
$73.78
PnL
-$0.25
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$45.95
Value
$45.77
PnL
-$0.18
Record
81%
42-10 (52)
Invested
$29.96
Value
$29.84
PnL
-$0.12
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.08
Record
99%
236-2 (238)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0.02
Record
42%
360-502 (862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.