Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on November 12?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 13%
$150.29
-$65.75
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $149.85 | $149.93 | +$0.08 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $37.18 | $0.2 | -$36.98 | 43% 802-1042 (1844) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.64 | $0.05 | -$8.59 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.9 | $0.04 | -$6.86 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.91 | $0.03 | -$5.88 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.93 | $0.03 | -$4.9 | 82% 69-15 (84) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.18 | $0.01 | -$2.17 | 84% 64-12 (76) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
Invested
$149.85
Value
$149.93
PnL
+$0.08
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$37.18
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$36.98
Record
43%
802-1042 (1844)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.64
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.59
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.86
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.88
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.9
Record
82%
69-15 (84)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.17
Record
84%
64-12 (76)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.