Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on November 12?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$100.62
-$65.46
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.9 | +$0 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $37.18 | $0.41 | -$36.77 | 43% 802-1042 (1844) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.64 | $0.09 | -$8.54 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $11.44 | $0.07 | -$6.82 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.91 | $0.06 | -$5.84 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.93 | $0.05 | -$4.87 | 82% 69-15 (84) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.18 | $0.02 | -$2.16 | 84% 64-12 (76) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0.01 | -$0.45 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.9
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$37.18
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$36.77
Record
43%
802-1042 (1844)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$8.64
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$8.54
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$11.44
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$6.82
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$5.84
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.87
Record
82%
69-15 (84)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.16
Record
84%
64-12 (76)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.45
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.