Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $189 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$188.61
-$2
99.7¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.6¢ | $111.59 | $110.43 | -$1.16 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $41.14 | $40.71 | -$0.43 | 50% 4490-4436 (8926) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.72 | -$0.22 | 100% 94-0 (94) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $9.96 | $9.86 | -$0.1 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $7.89 | -$0.09 | 37% 183-315 (498) |
LucerysInvested
$111.59
Value
$110.43
PnL
-$1.16
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
balthazar<$100Invested
$41.14
Value
$40.71
PnL
-$0.43
Record
50%
4490-4436 (8926)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.72
PnL
-$0.22
Record
100%
94-0 (94)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$9.86
PnL
-$0.1
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.89
PnL
-$0.09
Record
37%
183-315 (498)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.