Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $240 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$239.58
$5.12
95.7¢ → 98.6¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $124.45 | $127.02 | +$2.57 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $81.99 | $84.37 | +$2.38 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $10.5 | $10.53 | +$0.03 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $9.67 | $9.81 | +$0.14 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $7.85 | $7.85 | +$0 | 31% 190-424 (614) |
Invested
$124.45
Value
$127.02
PnL
+$2.57
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$81.99
Value
$84.37
PnL
+$2.38
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$10.53
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$9.67
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.14
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$7.85
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
190-424 (614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.