Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on November 10?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $179 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$178.69

Combined PnL

$6.14

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$178.69

Total Shares179

Combined PnL+$6.21

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares1

Combined PnL-$0.07

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$52.81	$53.55	+$0.74	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$54.9	$46.95	+$5.04	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.34	$22.34	+$0	34% 150-294 (444)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.98	+$0.08	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$15.1	$10.48	+$0.35	51% 197-186 (383)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.15	$5.15	+$0	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.15	$5.15	+$0	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.09	$5.09	+$0	28% 153-400 (553)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.08	$0	-$0.07	17% 10-48 (58)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$52.81

Value

$53.55

PnL

+$0.74

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$54.9

Value

$46.95

PnL

+$5.04

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$22.34

Value

$22.34

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.1

Value

$10.48

PnL

+$0.35

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.