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No
balthazar<$100NoNoNo
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 100%
Total Value
$64.25
Combined PnL
$2.57
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$64.25
Total Shares64
Combined PnL+$2.57
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 80%Yes — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $61.68 | $64.25 | +$2.57 | 59% 1779-1231 (3010) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4419-9499 (13918) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 535-2427 (2962) |
24
241532532432<$100Invested
$61.68
Value
$64.25
PnL
+$2.57
Record
59%
1779-1231 (3010)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4419-9499 (13918)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
535-2427 (2962)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x559a4f8c...c803f6
Slug
highest-temperature-in-warsaw-on-october-30-2026-12c