Back to Markets
NoYes
balthazar<$100NoNoYesNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
No 50%
Total Value
$44.88
Combined PnL
-$38.69
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$44.88
Total Shares45
Combined PnL+$2.46
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares322
Combined PnL-$41.15
No — 57%Yes — 43%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $42.42 | $44.88 | +$2.46 | 59% 1779-1231 (3010) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $41.15 | — | -$41.15 | 55% 394-317 (711) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1806-1787 (3593) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4419-9499 (13918) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
24
241532532432<$100Invested
$42.42
Value
$44.88
PnL
+$2.46
Record
59%
1779-1231 (3010)
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$41.15
Value
—
PnL
-$41.15
Record
55%
394-317 (711)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1806-1787 (3593)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4419-9499 (13918)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x8b00f671...9e9e9f
Slug
highest-temperature-in-warsaw-on-october-30-2026-11c