Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 30?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 78¢ · $295 held · ends Oct 30

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$294.51

Combined PnL

$24.68

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 77.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$123.85

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$19.45

Yes3 traders

Total Value$170.66

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$44.13

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 76.2¢	$121.01	$102.53	-$18.48	59% 1723-1189 (2912)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$49.54	$69	+$19.46	50% 1752-1734 (3486)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.5¢	$52.47	$56.29	+$3.81	56% 358-287 (645)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$24.53	$45.37	+$20.85	47% 631-718 (1349)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 71¢	$14.2	$14.7	+$0.5	53% 6464-5663 (12127)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77¢	$8.09	$6.62	-$1.47	57% 13544-10382 (23926)

241532532432

Invested

$121.01

Value

$102.53

PnL

-$18.48

Record

59%

1723-1189 (2912)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.54

Value

$69

PnL

+$19.46

Record

50%

1752-1734 (3486)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.47

Value

$56.29

PnL

+$3.81

Record

56%

358-287 (645)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.53

Value

$45.37

PnL

+$20.85

Record

47%

631-718 (1349)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

6464-5663 (12127)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.09

Value

$6.62

PnL

-$1.47

Record

57%

13544-10382 (23926)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.