Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $438 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$438.31
$32.34
61.6¢ → 88.5¢
+44% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $209.47 | $235.92 | +$26.45 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 40.3¢ | $89.47 | $107.4 | +$17.92 | 55% 320-260 (580) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.4¢ | $82.46 | $69.16 | -$13.3 | 51% 602-578 (1180) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $13.33 | $13.92 | +$0.59 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $15.39 | $11.92 | +$0.68 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
Invested
$209.47
Value
$235.92
PnL
+$26.45
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
Invested
$89.47
Value
$107.4
PnL
+$17.92
Record
55%
320-260 (580)
Invested
$82.46
Value
$69.16
PnL
-$13.3
Record
51%
602-578 (1180)
Invested
$13.33
Value
$13.92
PnL
+$0.59
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$15.39
Value
$11.92
PnL
+$0.68
Record
57%
13340-10198 (23538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.