Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 29?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$74.38
61.1¢ → 62¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 59.6¢ | $574.33 | $632.17 | +$57.84 | 51% 587-559 (1146) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 72.8¢ | $641.77 | $624.84 | -$14.09 | 27% 281-771 (1052) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.8¢ | $454.97 | $384.28 | -$70.71 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $183.89 | $240.56 | +$56.61 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $60.09 | $68.43 | +$8.34 | 61% 20685-13108 (33793) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $46.22 | $48.07 | +$1.85 | 53% 6325-5540 (11865) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $23.13 | $29.48 | +$6.35 | 60% 1599-1049 (2648) |
Invested
$574.33
Value
$632.17
PnL
+$57.84
Record
51%
587-559 (1146)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$641.77
Value
$624.84
PnL
-$14.09
Record
27%
281-771 (1052)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$60.09
Value
$68.43
PnL
+$8.34
Record
61%
20685-13108 (33793)
Invested
$46.22
Value
$48.07
PnL
+$1.85
Record
53%
6325-5540 (11865)
Invested
$23.13
Value
$29.48
PnL
+$6.35
Record
60%
1599-1049 (2648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.