Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 28?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $630 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$629.8
$7.51
58.8¢ → 66¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 40.5¢ | $256.57 | $206.7 | -$26.91 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.7¢ | $107.14 | $103.47 | -$3.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.5¢ | $122.98 | $103.24 | -$23.83 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 58.6¢ | $205.91 | $205.91 | +$0 | 46% 582-671 (1253) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 59¢ | $147.79 | $146.74 | +$7.51 | 54% 256-219 (475) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 36.5¢ | $76.58 | $70.45 | -$6.13 | 60% 1580-1035 (2615) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.5¢ | $48.48 | $45.22 | -$3.26 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.2¢ | $28.1 | $25.23 | -$2.87 |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$256.57
Value
$206.7
PnL
-$26.91
Record
28%
280-738 (1018)
Both legs:
Invested
$205.91
Value
$205.91
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
582-671 (1253)
Invested
$147.79
Value
$146.74
PnL
+$7.51
Record
54%
256-219 (475)
Invested
$76.58
Value
$70.45
PnL
-$6.13
Record
60%
1580-1035 (2615)
Both legs:
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.