Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 28?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 72¢ · $768 held · ended Oct 28

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$767.77

Combined PnL

$25.56

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 71.5¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$624.13

Total Shares847

Combined PnL+$26.73

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.88

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$1.18

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 59.8¢	$365.29	$394.24	+$28.95	46% 582-672 (1254)
Istaroth	Noavg 64.9¢	$238.22	$225.49	-$3.07	27% 281-769 (1050)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 31.5¢	$99.57	$140.75	+$10.03	60% 1599-1049 (2648)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.5¢	$57.77	$102.82	+$13.85
└ No leg	Noavg 48.4¢	$41.75	$37.93	-$3.82
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 35.5¢	$3.55	$4.4	+$0.85	57% 13137-10012 (23149)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$4.06	$2.88	-$1.18	53% 6325-5539 (11864)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$365.29

Value

$394.24

PnL

+$28.95

Record

46%

582-672 (1254)

Istaroth

Invested

$238.22

Value

$225.49

PnL

-$3.07

Record

27%

281-769 (1050)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.57

Value

$140.75

PnL

+$10.03

Record

60%

1599-1049 (2648)

Both legs:

Yes$57.7731.5¢+$13.85

No$41.7548.4¢-$3.82

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.85

Record

57%

13137-10012 (23149)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$1.18

Record

53%

6325-5539 (11864)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.