Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 28?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 33¢ · $238 held · ended Oct 28

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$237.89

Combined PnL

-$32.28

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 32.5¢

-53% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$71.04

Total Shares265

Combined PnL-$18.88

No5 traders

Total Value$166.84

Total Shares246

Combined PnL-$13.4

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$89.93	$71.04	-$18.88	60% 1599-1049 (2648)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$79.98	$58.34	-$21.64	50% 1654-1641 (3295)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$43.51	$39.84	-$0.13	27% 281-769 (1050)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$33.26	$38.21	+$4.96	46% 582-672 (1254)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$34.4	$22.77	+$1.32	57% 13137-10012 (23149)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$5.57	$7.67	+$2.1	53% 6325-5539 (11864)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.93

Value

$71.04

PnL

-$18.88

Record

60%

1599-1049 (2648)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$79.98

Value

$58.34

PnL

-$21.64

Record

50%

1654-1641 (3295)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$43.51

Value

$39.84

PnL

-$0.13

Record

27%

281-769 (1050)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$33.26

Value

$38.21

PnL

+$4.96

Record

46%

582-672 (1254)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$34.4

Value

$22.77

PnL

+$1.32

Record

57%

13137-10012 (23149)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$5.57

Value

$7.67

PnL

+$2.1

Record

53%

6325-5539 (11864)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.