Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 27?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 40¢ · $332 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$332.28
$6.2
47.2¢ → 40¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $153.98 | $147.68 | -$3.02 | 32% 273-569 (842) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.3¢ | $87.65 | $88.61 | +$0.47 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.3¢ | $62.46 | $59.07 | -$3.49 | |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 47.6¢ | $90.23 | $95.73 | +$5.5 | 55% 217-178 (395) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 44.2¢ | $80.69 | $85.78 | +$5.08 | 61% 1527-966 (2493) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.2¢ | $45.17 | $61.36 | +$16.18 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48¢ | $35.52 | $24.42 | -$11.1 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $2.4 | $3.1 | +$0.7 | 57% 12904-9820 (22724) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$153.98
Value
$147.68
PnL
-$3.02
Record
32%
273-569 (842)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.23
Value
$95.73
PnL
+$5.5
Record
55%
217-178 (395)
Invested
$80.69
Value
$85.78
PnL
+$5.08
Record
61%
1527-966 (2493)
Both legs:
Invested
$2.4
Value
$3.1
PnL
+$0.7
Record
57%
12904-9820 (22724)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.