Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C or higher on November 9?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
5
Yes 100%
$0
-$5.28
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $5.28 | — | -$5.28 | 46% 57-67 (124) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 77% 44-13 (57) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 44-52 (96) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 44% 47-60 (107) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 37-46 (83) |
Invested
$5.28
Value
—
PnL
-$5.28
Record
46%
57-67 (124)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
77%
44-13 (57)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
44-52 (96)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
47-60 (107)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
37-46 (83)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
CTRYes — $0
Lucerys
No — $0
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
CTRYes — $0
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
CTRYes — $0
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
CTRYes — $0