Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on November 8?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Yes 100%
$0
-$51.73
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $51.73 | — | -$51.73 | 21% 929-3491 (4420) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6185-7387 (13572) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6881-8137 (15018) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 5541-7239 (12780) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 70% 16761-7351 (24112) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3337-11823 (15160) |
Invested
$51.73
Value
—
PnL
-$51.73
Record
21%
929-3491 (4420)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6185-7387 (13572)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6881-8137 (15018)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
5541-7239 (12780)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
16761-7351 (24112)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3337-11823 (15160)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0
CTRYes — $0
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
CTRYes — $0
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
CTRYes — $0
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
CTRYes — $0
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
CTRYes — $0
luciebot
No — $0